Phil Emery: Developing late-round quarterbacks doesn’t work

[VikesRule]

Bears General Manager Phil Emery is not a believer in taking a quarterback late in the draft.

Emery says he has studied the development of quarterbacks in the NFL and found that teams that draft quarterbacks in the late round rarely turn those players into franchise starters.

“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from [Jay Cutler's draft class] on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.

“That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual,” Emery said. “Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”

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I agree 100% with him. Everybody brings up Brady as if the exception disproves the rule. To be a successful, longterm QB you need to be drafted in the first or second round (with the rare exceptions like Wilson, Foles, and Brady). "Developmental" QBs just do not seem to ever pan out...

[rollntider]

Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell say hi.

As does Tom Brady and Joe Montana

[TheNorm]

The bottom line is this: the team needs to do its homework, and developing players picked in those late rounds regardless of position also requires a little luck (although that's debatable too-if a team does its homework, odds are they'll find players that fit in their system more often than not). The Pats did their homework, felt comfortable with a guy like Tom Brady, and it paid off in spades-also helps Brady that he was drafted by the Patriots instead of a team like the Jags or even Lions (as a Michigan guy, I'm extremely happy Brady wasn't drafted here). Even Rodney Peete worked pretty well for a few years in the league, and I'm fairly certain he was a late round pick (sorry, don't feel like looking when he was drafted up-but he was drafted by the Lions, go figure).

I'm not surprised it's a Bears GM that says that-they could probably draft film in the late rounds and not be able to develop it. 

[rollntider]

yep,  I also think it has to do with the system. I think Jamarcus Russell would have done better in another system than the Raiders. Like the Falcons.

[Crewe]

I agree norm and to the system comment I think it has a lot to do with your staff that's helping this college player transition into the NFL.  Poor coaching staff…well, whaddya expect?
If you go through all the successful QB's, obviously you'll find a ton that are not first round QB's which to me, disproves the argument right out of the box.